Friday, October 7, 2011

Newmarket's two-year-old finale

Saturday marks the final time for many two-year-olds to shine in their juvenile year, with Newmarket hosting four excellent contests that include young stars Caspar Netscher, Power and Family One. There is also plenty of action for the older horses too, with Strong Suit looking for a third season victory over seven furlongs, and 34 runners lining up for the Cesarewitch Heritage Handicap.

Newmarket (Good To Firm)

2.05 Challenge Stakes (Group 2) 7f, 3-year-olds+ (8 runners)
Strong Suit (Richard Hannon/Richard Hughes) 11/8fav
Strong Suit bids for a third win of the season over this distance and is rightly favourite in an exposed field. Chachamaidee (Sir Henry Cecil/Tom Queally) is the form filly in this equally split lineup, and should push Richard Hannon's runner all the way. I'm struggling to make a case for the rest.

2.35 Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) 6f, 2-year-old colts (16 runners)
Lilbourne Lad (Richard Hannon/Richard Hughes) 12/1ew or Tough As Nails (Michael Mulvany/GF Carroll) 20/1ew
On the face of it, Lilbourne Lad has struggled to match his early season form recently. But in his last three starts Richard Hannon's runner has given weight away each time. This will not be the case on Saturday. He has so far taken to all ground types and looks a real danger to the more fancied pair of Caspar Netscher (Alan McCabe/Robert Winston) and Family One (Y Barberot/Olivier Peslier). Tough As Nails makes his first journey across the Irish Sea, and could enjoy the drop back in trip.

3.10 Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) 7f, 2-year-olds (9 runners)
Power (AP O'Brien/Ryan Moore) 7/2fav or Red Duke (John Quinn/Tom Eaves) 16/1ew
Already a Group One winner in Ireland (National Stakes), Aidan O'Brien's Power looks an exciting prospect. With Ryan Moore back on board following the pair's triumph at Royal Ascot in June, they could take some catching. Unbeaten duo Bronterre (Hannon/Hughes) and Ektihaam (Roger Varian/Richard Hills) should progress, as could long-shot Factory Time, back up in trip. Red Duke is level in weights for the first time in three runs, making him attractive at each-way prices.

3.50 Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap) 18f, 3-year-olds+ (34 runners)
Cosimo De Medici (Hughie Morrison/Robert Havlin) 16/1ew or Ermyn Lodge (Pat Phelan/Ian Mongan) 25/1ew
The biggest race of the day in terms of size, and the only handicap on the card, also makes the Cesarewitch the toughest call of the afternoon. A number of the runners have a chance, with favourite Tuscan Gold currently trading at 11/1. My preference is for Cosimo De Medici following his victory over course and distance last time up. I also expect the lightly-raced Ermyn Lodge to run well now reunited with Ian Mongan.

4.25 Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) 7f, 2-year-old fillies (9 runners)
Sunday Times (Peter Chapple-Hyam/William Buick) 4/1fav
Sunday Times moves up to seven furlongs for the first time, but with ground conditions in her favour, and an excellent performance in the Cheveley Park Stakes last time out, she should be capable of better still.

5.00 Autumn Stakes (Group 3) 8f, 2-year-olds (8 runners)
Astrology (AP O'Brien/Joseph O'Brien) 7/4fav
This race marks Astrology's third career start, and first in the UK. Having won a maiden over the distance at  Leopardstown, a drop to seven furlongs brought a third-placed finish in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at Curragh. Probably the best bit of form on offer. Perennial will no doubt be open to plenty of improvement following his maiden win at Doncaster last month.

5.35 Darley Stakes (Group 3) 9f, 3-year-olds+ (10 runners)
Dux Scholar (Sir Michael Stoute/Ryan Moore) 4/1
The only issue with Dux Scholar will be the ground. Having not finished outside the top four in any of his nine career starts, Sir Michael Stoute's three-year-old should continue his consistent form. The weight allowance is also a help. Retrieve is an interesting newcomer for Godolphin, after moving over from Australia following a fourth placed effort in the Group One Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick in April.

York (Good To Firm)

3.25 Rockingham Stakes (Listed) 6f, 2-year-olds (7 runners)
Bannock (Mark Johnston/Silvester De Sousa) 10/3
Although Bannock's run in the Two-year-old Trophy at Redcar last week is a slight concern (the draw could be an excuse), he's been decent enough through his debut campaign and should be thereabouts again here. Firth Of Clyde Stakes winner Roger Sez is an obvious danger, as is Miss Lahar.

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