Friday, September 16, 2011

Ayr Gold Cup Day (plus Newbury & Newmarket)

A cracking day of racing this Saturday with the Ayr Gold Cup taking centre stage. A field of 27 will lineup for the six furlong contest, with many seemingly having a chance to emulate last year's winner Redford. Elsewhere there is plenty of group company and handicapping action, including the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury, where Caspar Netscher bids to claim another Group 2 prize.

Ayr (Good To Soft)

2.45 Firth of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) 6f, 2-year-old fillies (12 runners)
Miss Work Of Art (Richard Fahey/Paul Hanagan) 4/1fav or Kohala (David Barron/Phillip Makin) 5/1
Richard Fahey's Miss Work Of Art started her career with three wins on the spin before struggling up in grade and trip during two July outings. Showed she could handled six furlongs when second to Bogart at York last month in softer conditions though, and could play a leading role. Kohala has performed with credit in group company so far, but the step up to six furlongs might be to her disadvantage.

3.20 Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) 6f, 3-year-olds+ (27 runners)
Son Of The Cat (Brian Gubby/Silvester De Sousa) 25/1ew or Below Zero (Mark Johnston/FM Berry) 28/1ew
A large number of this 27 runner field have good chances, including the inform Eton Rifles, but I've gone for two larger priced horses that will appreciate the distance and softer conditions. Son Of The Cat has split his time this season between listed and handicap events, winning the Stewards' Sprint Stakes at Glorious Goodwood in July. He appears to be on a good mark following two decent listed runs since. His low draw is a bonus. Below Zero has won two handicaps over six furlongs this season, one on soft ground, and has generally been consistent in larger handicap fields. Croisultan is another horse of interest following a good performance in an Irish Group 3 race last weekend.

4.30 Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed) 10f, 3-year-olds+ (5 runners)
Hot Prospect (Roger Varian/Eddie Ahern) 9/4jf
Roger Varian's runner has been consistent enough this year, racing three times over 10 furlongs. Doesn't mind the softer ground and appears to be the horse with the best form.

Newbury (Good To Soft)

2.00 Arc Trial (Group 3) 11f, 3-year-olds+ (8 runners)
Dangerous Midge (Brian Meehan/Martin Dwyer) 11/2 or Sea Of Heartbreak (Roger Charlton/Richard Hughes) 12/1ew
Last year's winner Dangerous Midge ran well first time out in 2010, and finished that campaign with victory in the $3,000,000 Breeders' Cup Turf contest at Churchill Downs, Kentucky. Conditions may not suit this time, but he's a strong candidate nonetheless. Sea Of Heartbreak has put in four strong performances this season, winning last time out in the listed Chalice Stakes at this course. Others possibly stronger, but worth considering each-way.

2.30 Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) 6f, 2-year-olds (9 runners)
Caspar Netscher (Alan McCabe/Kieren Fallon) 2/1fav or Factory Time (Mick Channon/Chris Catlin) 20/1ew
Despite carrying a penalty for his victory in the Gimcrack at York last time out, Caspar Netscher is very much the one to beat with form, distance and conditions on his side. Factory Time put in a great performance to finish second at Doncaster in the valuable Weatherby's Insurance Stakes last week and looks sure to run well again at a big price.

3.05 Handicap (Class 2) 10f, 3-year-olds+ (20 runners)
Labarinto
(Sir Michael Stoute/Richard Hughes) 4/1fav or Kirthill (Luca Cumani/Kieren Fallon) 7/1ew
Siding with three-year-olds at this time of the season can prove a good strategy and Labarinto could continue his handicap improvement by winning for a second successive time. Kirthill and Oceanway are two other three-year-olds worth looking at at.

3.40 World Trophy (Group 3) 5f, 3-year-olds+ (11 runners)
Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/William Buick) 8/1ew or Katla (JF Grogan/Kieren Fallon) 12/1ew
Another race where three-year-olds could prosper from the weight allowance, none more so than Dinkum Diamond, whose consistency this year makes him a great each-way shout if the price remains around 8/1. Katla is another of the classic generation who could feature at a larger price following good runs in Irish listed events recently.

Newmarket (Good To Firm)

2.20 Median Auction Stakes (Class 2) 6f, 2-year-old fillies (14 runners)
Roedean (Richard Hannon/Richard Mullen) 5/1 or Lemon Rock (Noel Quinlan/BA Curtis) 8/1ew
Not the greatest of auction races, but Richard Hannon's record in contests of this type marks Roedean out as one to consider. She is at the bottom of the weights and is a consistent performer. Lemon Rock runs best when the ground is firm.

2.50 Median Auction Trophy (Class 2) 7f, 2-year-olds (16 runners)
Coupe De Ville (Richard Hannon/Pat Dobbs) 7/2fav or Alkazim (David Wachman/WM Lordan) 10/1ew
Coupe De Ville has the best form of this field, and is weighted appropriately, but should go close for Richard Hannon. Alkazim comes over from Ireland, and despite finishing second in all three starts so far, will surely go close.

3.30 Cesarewitch Trial (Class 2 Handicap) 18f, 3-year-olds+ (18 runners)
Montparnasse (Mark Johnston/Luke Morris) 16/1ew or Eshtyaaq (David Evans/Cathy Gannon) 14/1ew
Mark Johnston's four-year-old finished fifth in this race last year and is now 10 pounds lower in the weights. Likes the ground to be firm and ran well last time out, albeit over 12 furlongs. Eshtyaaq has moved up the weights in the last couple of months following three second placed finishes in a row. Upped in trip again for this.

Friday, September 9, 2011

The rest of Saturday's action

Goodwood (Good To Soft)

1.45 Stardom Stakes (Listed) 7f, 2-year-olds (6 runners)
Justineo (William Haggas/Michael Hills) 11/8fav or Nayarra (Mick Channon/Ted Durcan) 9/1ew
Favourite Justineo finished fourth, on similar ground, behind standout performer Caspar Netscher in the Gimcrack last month, and looks certain to enjoy an increase in trip. Nayarra was fourth to Regal Realm at Goodwood last time out.

2.20 Select Stakes (Group 3) 9f, 3-year-olds+ (8 runners)
French Navy (Mahmood Al Zarooni/Ahmed Ajtebi) 7/4fav or Opera Gal (Andrew Balding/David Probert) 8/1ew
French Navy returned from injury last month to grab a deserved victory at Newmarket and looks a good bet to win his fifth race in six career starts. Opera Gal has performed consistently well in listed company since June.

2.50 Starlit Stakes (Listed) 6f, 3-year-olds+ (10 runners)
Markab (Henry Candy/Dane O'Neill) 3/1fav or Desert Poppy (Walter Swinburn/Jim Crowley) 8/1ew
Usually found in better company than this, Markab hasn't been at his best this year, but this is a lot easier. Desert Poppy has performed well in this grade already during the summer.

Chester (Good)

3.30 Stand Cup (Listed) 12f, 3-year-olds+ (6 runners)
Kiama Bay (John Quinn/Tom Eaves) 9/2
John Quinn's inform five-year-old makes the step up to listed company following a superb season improving in handicaps. Just touched off in an excellent handicap last time out at York.

Doncaster's St Leger Festival - Day 4 (Saturday)

The final day of the festival brings with it the final classic of the season, the St Leger. Sea Moon is overwhelming favourite following his performance in the Great Voltigeur last month, but Blue Bunting, Census and the rest should make sure he doesn't have it all his own way.

Doncaster (Good)

2.00 Champagne Stakes (Group 2) 7f, 2-year-old colts & geldings (5 runners)
Entifaadha (William Haggas/Richard Hills) 11/10fav
Acomb Stakes winner Entifaadha is unbeaten in two starts over seven furlongs and could easily win this, with only Red Duke and Daddy Long Legs looking likely challengers.

2.30 Portland Handicap (Class 2) 5f, 3-year-olds+ (22 runners)
Swiss Dream (David Elsworth/Olivier Peslier) 12/1ew or Rain Delayed (Michael Dods/Tom Queally) 33/1ew
A tough handicap to call, but I'll side with three-year-old Swiss Dream who won a listed race at Newmarket last time around. The filly has also won a class two handicap this year in her age group. Rain Delayed hasn't run well since April when he finished second in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes. The gelding's rating has dropped significantly since though, and he could have a chance of a place at large odds.

3.05 St Leger (Group 1) 14f, 3-year-olds (9 runners)
Sea Moon (Sir Michael Stoute/Olivier Peslier) 13/8fav or Masked Marvel (John Gosden/William Buick) 7/1ew
The final classic of the year gives the lightly raced Sea Moon a chance to make it four wins on the spin after he destroyed all before him in the Great Voltigeur last month. A number of well regarded rivals will be hot on his heals, including Godolphin filly Blue Bunting, winner of the 1000 Guineas and Irish Oaks. Masked Marvel is a slight outsider according to the market, but he did win the Bahrain Trophy on his last outing. Behind him that day was Richard Hannon's runner Census, who has since won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes. Michael Owen's runner Brown Panther has a bit to find on his rivals.

3.45 Handicap (Class 2) 8f, 3-year-olds+ (13 runners)
Sooraah (William Haggas/Kieren Fallon) 13/2ew or Vainglory (David Simcock/Laura Pike) 20/1ew
William Haggas' extremely consistent filly Sooraah won the Valiant Stakes at Ascot in July before finishing a superb fourth at Glorious Goodwood in the Totesport Mile. She should go well again. Vainglory has been well held in his last three starts, but the ground is likely to suit this time.

4.10 Park Stakes (Group 2) 7f, 3-year-olds+ (5 runners)
The Cheka (Eve Johnson Houghton/Tom Queally) 9/4fav
In what, to me at least, is a very low quality renewal of this Group 2 contest, The Cheka has the best form of the five this season, having at least competed well at the level.

4.45 Nursery (Class 2) 8f, 2-year-olds (10 runners)
Anjaz (Saeed Bin Suroor/Franke Dettori) 9/4fav or Pride And Joy (Jamie Osborne/Fergus Sweeney) 7/1ew
Godolphin runner Anjaz looks on a fair mark as he begins handicapping and the fact that he has already stayed eight furlongs is a bonus. Pride And Joy is on a hat trick, but is probably more likely to secure a place.

5.25 Handicap (Class 2) 12f, 3-year-olds+ (9 runners)
Swift Alhaarth (Mark Johnston/Silvestre De Sousa) 6/1ew or Prompter (Michael Bell/Joseph O'Brien) 9/2
An interesting final race of the festival should see Swift Alhaarth go close again after finishing third in each of his last three outings. Prompter is top weight but ran well in his last race.

Requinto (7/2) and Ektihaam 10/11) obliged on day three, with Burwaaz (6/1) and Lutine Bell (12/1) offering decent money for placed efforts. Opinion Poll was a close second in the big race of the day.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Doncaster's St Leger Festival - Day 3 (Friday)

Opinion Poll could be the star performer on day three as he bids to complete a hat-trick in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup. Regal Realm and Requinto are two of a number of excellent two-year-old prospects on show.

Doncaster (Good)

1.25 Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) 5f, 2-year-olds (10 runners)
Requinto (David Wachman/WM Lorden) 7/2fav or Burwaaz (Ed Dunlop/Richard Hills) 5/1
David Wachman's Molecomb Stakes winner drops back into two-year-old company after coming up short in the Nunthorpe last time out. The Irish colt looks a leading contender for this. Burwaaz finished second behind Requinto in the Molecomb and ran well last time out at York over six furlongs.

1.55 Mallard Stakes (Class 2 handicap) 14f, 3-year-olds+ (11 runners)
Eternal Heart (Mark Johnston/William Buick) 11/2 or Hawk Mountain (John Quinn/Jimmy Fortune) 7/1ew
Last seen finishing second in the March Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, three-year-old Eternal Heart looks set to go one better this time. Weight is very much on the colt's side as he drops back into handicapping. Hawk Mountain could be his closest challenger after running well in a number of 16 furlong handicaps already this year.

2.25 Doncaster Cup (Group 2) 18f, 3-year-olds+ (8 runners)
Opinion Poll (Mahmood Al Zarooni/Frankie Dettori) 7/4fav or Bergo (Gary Moore/George Baker) 12ew
Godolphin runner Opinion Poll bids to complete a hat trick after winning both the Goodwood Cup and Lonsdale Cup in his last two outings. This trip is two furlongs longer, but his second place in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot proves he has stamina to burn. Bergo is a good price for a place after running well behind Opinion Poll last time out at York.

3.00 May Hill Stakes (Group 2) 8f, 2-year-old fillies (8 runners)
Regal Realm (Jeremy Noseda/Jimmy Fortune) 9/4fav or Switcher (Tom Dascombe/Richard Kingscote) 12/1ew
Regal Realm offers the best form amongst these lightly raced fillies having won the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood on her last appearance in August. Switcher has place claims after finishing third in a Group 3 race at Deauville last month.

3.35 Conditions Stakes (Class 2) 7f, 2-year-olds (6 runners)
Ektihaam (Roger Varian/Richard Hills) 10/11fav
Ektihaam's only race so far yielded a victory and he holds entries in three of the big end of season two-year-old races.

4.10 Handicap (Class 2) 6f, 3-year-olds+ (15 runners)
Grissom (Tim Easterby/David Allan) 6/1ew or Lutine Bell (Mike Murphy/Richard Hughes) 14/1ew
A three-time winner this year already, moving up the handicap ratings in the process, Grissom looks set for a bold attempt to complete a hat-trick. Lutine Bell could grab a place if reproducing his early July form.

4.40 Classified Stakes (Class 3) 10f, 3-year-olds (17 runners)
Kenyan Cat (Ed McMahon/Neil Farley) 10/1ew or Viva Vettori (David Elsworth/Jamie Spencer) 9/1ew
Ed McMahon's Kenyan Cat has improved significantly this year, finishing third or higher in all of his five starts. Viva Vettori ran well last time out in handicap company.

A decent enough day on Thursday, with Alanza (3/1) and Club Oceanic (7/2) securing last-ditch wins in their respective races. Alternative selection Factory Time (33/1) ran a blinder to claim second in the big two-year-old contest

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Doncaster's St Leger Festival - Day 2 (Thursday)

A couple of good looking group contests add to day two's quality, but the big race in terms of prize money is the Weatherby's Insurance Stakes for two-year-olds.

Doncaster (Good)

1.25 Nursery (Class 2 handicap) 6f, 2-year-old fillies (14 runners)
Roger Sez (Tim Easterby/David Allan) 7/1ew or Toffee Tart (JW Hills/Eddie Ahern) 8/1ew
After competing at a higher level in her last two starts, Roger Sez drops back down into handicap company. Tim Easterby's runner last won in this grade, and following a decent listed contest effort last time, should be there or thereabouts. Toffee Tart won a handicap last time, and can't be ruled out despite going up in weight and grade.

1.55 Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) 7f, 3-year-olds+ fillies & mares (11 runners)
Alanza (John Oxx/Johnny Murtagh) 3/1fav or Jacqueline Quest (Ian Williams/Richard Hughes) 10/1ew
Irish raider Alanza makes the step up to group company after winning listed events at Tipperary and Cork inhe last two months. The three-year-old also has weight on her side. Jacqueline Quest, the disqualified winner of last year's 1000 Guineas, has struggled since that run, but following a move to Ian Williams has run better. Her Supreme Stakes third at the end of August puts the four-year-old in the frame.

2.25 Weatherby's Insurance Stakes (Class 2) 6f, 2-year-olds (22 runners)
North Star Boy (Richard Hannon/Kieren Fallon) 20/1ew or Factory Time (Mick Channon/Chris Catlin) 22/1ew
One of three Richard Hannon runners in the field, North Star Boy produced respectful performances in listed and group company after winning an Ascot maiden in May. Factory Time has also competed at a higher level, but with less success.

3.00 Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) 14f, 3-year-olds+ fillies & mares (7 runners)
Sense Of Purpose (DK Weld/PJ Smullen)
Dermot Weld's runner has been in excellent form in Ireland this year, winning twice over 14 furlongs. She is prefered to favourite Set To Music, due to the three-year-old's lack of form over the distance.

3.35 Maiden Stakes (Class 3) 8f, 2-year-olds (39 runners)
A race that can mostly be judged on pedigree alone. Godolphin runner Encke appears to have a good chance, along with Charles Hills' runner Perenial. Of those to have run before, Mark Johnston's Hyperlink looks the best pick.

4.10 Handicap (Class 3) 6f, 3-year-olds+ (22 runners)
Azzurra Du Caprio (Ben Haslam/PJ McDonald) or Advanced (Kevin Ryan/Jamie Spencer)
A consistent enough year has seen Azzurra Du Caprio claim two victories from five starts. The filly appears to run fine on most surfaces and finished fourth last time out in the class above. Advanced has dropped down the weights slightly, and is again, consistent enough.

4.40 Handicap (Class 2) 10f, 3-year-olds+ (8 runners)
Club Oceanic (Jeremy Noseda/Jamie Spencer) 3/1fav or Jutland (Mark Johnston/Silvestre De Sousa) 7/1ew
One Newmarket result aside, Club Oceanic has been in excellent form this year. The colt gains weight for being a three-year-old and should make a decent bid. Jutland has a chance to place again following his last two runs.

A decent start to the festival on Wednesday saw my tips claim two winners, Eureka (9/2) and Lightning Cloud (8/1). Two placings made the day complete in Dinkum Diamond (6/1) and Lujeanie (14/1).

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Doncaster's St Leger Festival - Day 1 (Wednesday)

A decent start to the 2011 St Leger Festival includes old time jockeys going head to head in the Leger Legends race, which is preceded by the feature race of the day, the listed Scarbrough Stakes.

Doncaster (Good To Firm)

2.00 Nursery (Class 2 handicap) 7f, 2-year-olds (12 runners)
West Leake Hare (Charles Hills/Michael Hills) 7/1ew or Magic City (Richard Hannon/Richard Hughes) 8/1ew
Charlie Hills' runner West Leake Hare was touched off by a short head in a similar race at Glorious Goodwood and is likely to enjoy a return to firmer ground after bombing out on a soft York track last time. The Hannon and Hughes pairing is always respected, and Magic City is also likely to enjoy a move back to firmer conditions. It's his first try at seven furlongs though.

2.35 Conditions Stakes (Class 2) 6f, 2-year-olds (5 runners)
Eureka (Richard Hannon/Richard Hughes) 9/2
It's fair to say Eureka is the most exposed of this two-year-old field. However, the colt has performed at the highest level compared to those who oppose him, with his last outing being sixth behind phenom Habour Watch at Glorious Goodwood. Richard Hannon's charge is weighted accordingly, but still has an excellent chance.

3.10 Scarbrough Stakes (Listed) 5f, 2-year-olds+ (12 runners)
Dinkum Diamond (Henry Candy/Dane O'Neill) 6/1ew or Captain Dunne (Tim Easterby/David Allan) 11/2
Irish three-year-old Dinkum Diamond has finished third or higher in all five of his runs this season (four listed contests), winning a conditions stakes race at Newmarket in July before finishing just behind Tangerine Trees and Duchess Dora (who opposes again in this) in the Beverley Bullet last time out. Henry Candy's colt is in great form and should go close again. The six-year-old Captain Dunne has had a decent season also, with his sole victory coming in the Epsom Dash handicap in June.

3.45 Leger Legends Classified Stakes (Class 5) 8f, 3-year-olds+ (19 runners)
Talent Scout (Tim Walford/Tom O'Ryan) 6/1ew
An old-timer jockey race, including Ray Cochrane and Jamie Osborne. My pick of the horses is the improving Talent Scout who has won his last two handicap outings, both over eight furlongs.

4.20 Conditions Stakes (Class 2) 10f, 3-5-year-olds (9 runners)
Elusive Pimpernel (John Dunlop/Eddie Ahern) 9/2
Following an impressive juvenile campaign, Elusive Pimpernel was seen twice at three, before returning as a four-year-old this year, only to largely disappoint. The step up to 10 furlongs hasn't gone particularly well thus far, but he did finish second in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock a month ago. That form could see him triumph in this grade.

4.50 Champions Handicap (Class 2) 7f, 3-year-olds (14 runners)
Lightning Cloud (Kevin Ryan/Phillip Makin) 8/1ew or Shesastar (David Barron/Jamie Spencer) 6/1ew
Lightning Cloud has run almost exclusively at seven furlongs, and has secured four victories from six starts this campaign, moving up the handicapping divisions with relative ease. This is his stiffest test so far, but there is no reason to believe he won't handle it. Shesastar is another improver that has won at Class 2 level this season. Jamie Spencer tends to get the best from her.

5.20 Handicap (Class 4) 5f, 3-year-olds+ (22 runners)
Lujeanie (Dean Ivory/Frankie Dettori) or Picabo (Lucy Wadham/Dane O'Neill)
Frankie Dettori is an interesting booking for Dean Ivory's Lujeanie, who appeared to enjoy the drop back to five furlongs this summer, finishing second and third in comparable races. Having struggled at six furlongs earlier in the campaign, his latest run (over six at Newmarket in July) is best forgotten. Filly Picabo is another horse seemingly enjoying a drop back to five furlongs, finishing first and second in her last two encounters.

Friday, September 2, 2011

Saturday's racing tips

Haydock is the place to be this weekend for top quality racing, before attention shifts to Ireland's big meeting at Leopardstown.

Ascot (Good)
3.45 Heritage Handicap (Class 2) 12f, 3-year-olds (16 runners)
Parlour Games (Mahmood Al-Zarooni/Mickael Barzalona) 7/1ew or Ithoughtitwasover (Mark Johnston/Michael Hills) 16/1ew

Haydock (Good)
2.00 Superior Mile (Listed) 8f, 3-year-olds+ (8 runners)
First City (David Simcock/Jamie Spencer) 4/1 or Navajo Chief (Alan Jarvis/Harry Bentley) 8/1ew

3.35 Sprint Cup (Group 1) 6f, 3-year-olds+ (16 runners)
Hoof It (Michael Easterby/Graham Gibbons) 5/1fav or Genki (Roger Charlton/George Baker) 20/1ew

4.40 Ascendant Stakes (Listed) 8f, 2-year-olds (8 runners)
Crius (Richard Hannon/Richard Hughes) 6/1ew

Kempton Park (Standard)
2.15 September Stakes (Group 3) 12f, 3-year-olds+ (8 runners)
Harris Tweed (William Haggas/Liam Jones) 5/2fav or Bronze Cannon (Gary Moore/Tom Queally) 25/1ew

Leopardstown (Good To Firm)
5.40 Matron Stakes (Group 1) 8f, 3-year-old+ fillies & mares (13 runners)
Misty For Me (AP O'Brien/Seamie Heffernan) 6/5fav or Barefoot Lady (Richard Fahey/Tony Hamilton) 16/1ew

6.45 Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) 10f, 3-year-olds+ (6 runners)
So You Think (AP O'Brien/Seamie Heffernan) 1/3fav or Famous Name (DK Weld/PJ Smullen) 12/1ew